Northeast (NE) Pickering Primer

This primer seeks to inform Durham Region residents about the long-term consequences of urban sprawl, using the proposed Northeast Pickering development as a key case study. Development and infrastructure decisions here will have far-reaching impacts on the quality of life across Durham Region, extending beyond Pickering itself. Expanding into Northeast Pickering will require substantial infrastructure, including roads, sewers, and water systems - all funded by regional property taxes. This can lead to increased costs and potential strain on services for all Durham residents. Additionally, the environmental impact and changes in traffic patterns could further influence daily life across the region. Understanding these potential financial, environmental and social implications can empower residents to advocate for growth that is both responsible, sustainable growth across the region.

URBAN SPRAWL INTO NORTHEAST PICKERING: POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR ALL DURHAM RESIDENTS

1. Urban Sprawl and Sustainability

The 4,000-acre development, branded as “The Community of Veraine” by Dorsay Development Ltd., is being promoted as a self-sustaining community in Northeast Pickering. However, it follows the familiar pattern of urban sprawl—low-density, single-family housing spreading into pristine agricultural land, wetlands, and Natural Heritage areas.

Developing Northeast Pickering encourages urban sprawl, extending Pickering’s footprint far from its city centre. This leads to longer commutes, more traffic, and increased pollution, while making public services such as transit less efficient and more costly. Experts warn that this type of growth is unsustainable as it increases car dependency, greenhouse gas emissions, and long-term infrastructure costs without delivering proportional benefits to residents.

2. Potential for Higher Property Taxes

The Northeast Pickering expansion will require extensive infrastructure, placing long-term financial responsibilities on both Durham Region and the City of Pickering. Property taxes, which include both municipal and regional portions, fund projects like this, and these costs are often passed on to all residents—not just new homeowners.

Infrastructure costs include:

Transportation: Roads, highways, bridges, public transit, and bike lanes.
Utilities: Water supply, sewer systems, stormwater management, electricity, and telecommunications.
Public Services: Schools, fire and police stations, healthcare facilities.
Community Facilities: Parks, recreation areas, and community centers.
Sustainability: Green spaces and energy-efficient upgrades.
Maintenance: Long-term repairs, upgrades, and climate resilience measures.

These expenses, which amount to millions, may lead to higher property taxes for all Durham residents.

Charles Marohn, a noted expert on urban sprawl and founder of Strong Towns, warns that “cities routinely trade near-term financial gains for long-term financial burdens.” He compares this approach to a Ponzi scheme, where developments that seem advantageous in the short-term lead to unsustainable financial practices, ultimately placing future generations in a precarious position.

3. Strain on Public Services

Beyond the financial impact, this expansion will put additional pressure on already strained regional services. The new infrastructure will increase demand for services such as waste management, emergency response, schools, and recreation centers, potentially reducing the quality of services that all Durham residents currently rely on.

4. Environmental Impacts

Northeast Pickering is home to environmentally sensitive areas, including the headwaters of Carruthers Creek. Developing these lands could disrupt natural water flows, potentially increasing the risk of downstream flooding by up to 77%. This disruption could also contribute to pollution and the degradation of local ecosystems—impacts that would directly affect Ajax and surrounding communities (See Resource #1 below).

In addition to these risks, the area is also home to species at risk, which could be further threatened by the loss of habitat caused by urban development. The destruction of green spaces and natural environments would impact local biodiversity, leading to the decline of vulnerable species and fundamentally altering the region's ecological balance. The loss of green space and harm to wildlife habitats could fundamentally alter the natural landscape of the region, with lasting consequences for both the environment and the communities that rely on it.

Finally, the proposed development would also lead to the loss of prime farmland, including areas with Class 1 soil—the most fertile and productive for agriculture.

With only 7.3% of Canada's land being arable, much of it located in Southern Ontario, protecting this farmland is essential to ensuring long-term food security. Alarmingly, 318 acres of Ontario farmland are lost every day to urban sprawl, raising significant concerns for the future of local agriculture and sustainability.

OPPORTUNITY COST FOR RESIDENTS OF DURHAM REGION

Prioritizing the Veraine development in Northeast Pickering over sustainable growth options comes with trade-offs. Envision Durham’s Scenario 4 highlighted alternative sites within existing urban boundaries that could meet growth targets without burdening residents with higher taxes.

Expanding into Northeast Pickering leads to long-term costs associated with maintaining sprawling infrastructure, accelerating urban sprawl and increasing expenses at both regional and municipal levels. This diverts resources from revitalizing existing urban areas and efficient land use. By choosing to develop this area, the Region risks missing out on more financially sustainable and environmentally friendly development opportunities that align with modern urban planning principles. Ultimately, the hidden costs of low-density sprawl may result in higher taxes and reduced funding for public services for Durham residents.

A PATH FORWARD

While the need for affordable housing is undeniable, developing Northeast Pickering presents significant concerns, including potential environmental impacts, increased infrastructure costs, and the risk of unsustainable growth patterns. Instead of expanding into environmentally sensitive and agricultural areas, municipalities should prioritize compact, efficient, and sustainable development within existing urban boundaries.

WHAT COMES NEXT

To prevent unchecked urban sprawl and protect the Northeast Pickering area, it is essential to consider alternative strategies. Preserving this land helps safeguard its natural ecosystems, agricultural value, and environmental resilience, ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.

Moving forward, we will continue working collaboratively with local leaders, community stakeholders, and concerned residents to explore practical solutions that balance growth with environmental stewardship. Together, we can promote development that is walkable, transit-friendly, and inclusive—while maintaining the integrity of Northeast Pickering’s green spaces and agricultural heritage.

WHAT YOU CAN DO TO LEARN MORE

1. Learn About the True Costs of Sprawl: Explore the long-term financial, social and environmental impacts of urban sprawl:

Suburbia is Subsidized: Here’s the Math presented by Not Just Bikes.

From ‘car-dependent hellscapes’ to green cities, Canadians find new ways to fight climate change

2. See for Yourself: Visit the Northeast Pickering lands and experience firsthand just how far they are from the city centre and how pristine this land is. HINT: You will need time and a car to get there!

How to Get There: The Northeast Pickering lands are situated in Northeast Pickering generally north of Highway 7, south of Concession Road 8, west of Lake Ridge Road and east of Westney Road. (see map below)

3. Read Resource #1: Carruthers Creek Watershed – What You Need to Know.

4. Read Resource #2: Overview of The Northeast Pickering Agricultural Soils Report.

5. Invite family and friends to visit https://www.stopsprawldurham.com/ and to subscribe to our Newsletter and receive notices of any events that may be planned. To subscribe, send an email to stopsprawldurham@gmail.com to have your name added to our mailing list.

RESOURCE #1

CARRUTHERS CREEK WATERSHED – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

The Headwaters of Carruthers Creek, located on the Northeast Pickering lands, hold immense ecological importance and play a vital role in the overall health of the watershed. Understanding the significance of these headwaters is crucial, as any development in this sensitive area could have far-reaching consequences.

The headwaters are the lifeblood of the watershed, acting as a natural regulator for water flow, supporting biodiversity, and maintaining water quality downstream. Any disruption to this delicate balance—such as through urbanization—could result in heightened flood risks, environmental degradation, and long-term economic costs for surrounding communities. Recognizing the value of these lands is essential in safeguarding the sustainability of the Carruthers Creek watershed for future generations.

Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan (2021-2031)

The Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan is a collaborative effort between the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority (TRCA), the Region of Durham, the Town of Ajax, and the City of Pickering. Its goal is to protect, enhance, and restore the health of the Carruthers Creek watershed, ensuring sustainability for future generations. This plan addresses land use, environmental protection, and infrastructure planning for the years 2021 to 2031.

What Is a Watershed?

A watershed is an area drained by a river and its tributaries.

Healthy watersheds support biodiversity, reduce flooding, protect water quality,

and sustain drinking water sources. The Carruthers Creek watershed crosses rural

and urban areas and flows into Lake Ontario.

Current Conditions:

The Carruthers Creek watershed is currently under significant strain due to development and urbanization. The aquatic ecosystem has reached its limit for sustainable development without improved mitigation efforts, while the lack of natural land cover—such as forests and wetlands—weakens the ecosystem’s ability to respond to environmental changes. Water quality has been degraded by agricultural runoff, stormwater, and road salts, further impacting the health of the watershed. Additionally, the increase in impervious surfaces like roads and buildings has led to more severe flooding and erosion, as water absorption into the soil is blocked, amplifying these risks.

Developing on the Northeast Pickering lands, which sit on the headwaters of the Carruthers Creek watershed, is a particularly bad idea for several reasons, especially when it comes to flooding and environmental sustainability.

1. Increased Flooding Risk:

The headwaters of a watershed play a crucial role in regulating the flow of water downstream. When these areas are developed, natural surfaces such as forests, fields, and wetlands are replaced by impermeable materials such as concrete and asphalt. These impervious surfaces prevent water from being absorbed into the soil, significantly increasing surface runoff.

The result is that stormwater flows more quickly and in greater volume into Carruthers Creek, which can overwhelm its natural capacity and cause severe flooding downstream, particularly in areas like Ajax, where the creek flows into Lake Ontario.

The Carruthers Creek Watershed Plan already identifies a “Flood Vulnerable Cluster” in the lower part of the watershed, meaning the area is prone to flooding. Further development in the headwaters would exacerbate this problem, increasing the frequency and severity of floods. This not only threatens homes and infrastructure but can also result in costly damages and higher insurance premiums for residents.

2. Disruption of Natural Water Flow:

The Northeast Pickering lands are critical for maintaining the natural water balance in the watershed. They help slow down the flow of water, allowing it to seep into the ground and replenish groundwater supplies. This process is vital for preventing erosion, maintaining streamflow during dry periods, and supporting the local ecosystem. Urbanizing these lands would disrupt this balance, causing water to rush into the creek too quickly, leading to both flooding and erosion downstream. Over time, this could erode riverbanks, damage natural habitats, and even increase sedimentation in Lake Ontario, which would degrade water quality.

3. Threat to Biodiversity: Habitat Destruction and Endangered Species at Risk:

The Carruthers Creek watershed is already under significant stress due to urban development, with key natural features such as forests and wetlands falling below the threshold necessary to sustain ecological health. Expanding development into the headwaters would exacerbate this, further reducing natural cover, diminishing biodiversity, and negatively impacting wildlife habitats. Forests, wetlands, and meadows play a vital role in absorbing stormwater, filtering pollutants, and serving as essential habitats for wildlife. Their removal would heighten the risk of flooding, degrade water quality, and impair the ecosystem's ability to support a diverse range of species, including the endangered Redside Dace, a fish species found in the creek.

NOTE: The Northeast Pickering Secondary Plan Technical Report titled 'Natural Heritage and Hazard Background Analysis (March 2024) emphasizes several key impacts on local wildlife:

Species at Risk: There is a possibility of up to 14 species classified as either threatened or endangered under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) being present within the study region.

Species of Conservation Concern: The area may also support the presence of 10 species that are considered of conservation concern.

Significant Wildlife Habitat: Eight distinct types of significant wildlife habitat could potentially exist within the boundaries of the study area.

These findings underscore the critical need to account for these environmental considerations in future development plans.

4. Climate Change Compounds the Issue:

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as heavy rainfall, which will put even more pressure on watersheds. Developing on the Northeast Pickering lands would reduce the natural system’s ability to handle these challenges, leading to even more severe flooding and environmental damage. In contrast, preserving these lands can help the watershed adapt to climate change by allowing natural areas to absorb and manage excess water during extreme weather events.

5. Long-Term Costs to the Community:

While some may argue that building on Northeast Pickering lands will bring economic benefits, the long-term costs to the community far outweigh these gains. Flooding, erosion, and water quality issues can result in higher public expenses for infrastructure repairs, stormwater management upgrades, and environmental restoration. Moreover, Pickering and Durham residents may face higher property taxes to fund these repairs, increased insurance premiums due to higher flooding risks, and potential declines in property values due to the area's increased vulnerability to natural disasters.

Developing the Northeast Pickering lands on the Carruthers Creek watershed is a risky proposition that could have devastating environmental, financial, and social consequences for the people of Pickering, Ajax (the recipients of downstream flooding) and Durham Region who will all share in the growing tax burden. The increased likelihood of downstream flooding, disruption of natural water flow, and degradation of the local ecosystem make this development a short-sighted choice. By preserving these headwaters, the community can better manage water resources, reduce flood risks, and protect the natural environment for future generations.

NOTE: Rod Phillips, former Ontario MPP and Minister of the Environment, voiced support for adding the headwaters of Carruthers Creek in Northeast Pickering to the Greenbelt during the 2018 provincial election and again in 2021. He argued that the area was ecologically important and that it was unclear why it had not already been included in the Greenbelt. Despite his initial commitment and reiterating support for the protection of Carruthers Creek in later years, no action was taken to incorporate it into the Greenbelt during his tenure. https://durham.insauga.com/ajax-mayor-calls-on-ontario-candidates-to-protect-carruthers-creek-headwaters/

RESOURCE #2

OVERVIEW OF THE NE PICKERING AGRICULTURAL SOILS REPORT (OCTOBER 2019)

This report, commissioned by Dorsay Development Corporation, looks at the quality of farmland in Northeast Pickering and compares it to six other areas nearby. The goal was to understand how good the land is for farming, where livestock operations exist, and if there are any food-related businesses in the area. This evaluation helps determine whether any of the areas are suitable for future development.

Key Findings:

1. Land Quality:
o All seven areas, including the main piece of land (formerly called Veraine and presently called Northeast Pickering), are rated as Class 1 farmland, meaning they have the best soil for farming.

2. Water Drainage:
o Some areas have tile drainage systems (pipes that help drain water from the soil), which makes the land easier to farm, especially in wet conditions. Not all areas have this, and some have no drainage systems at all.

3. Barns and Farming:
o All areas have barns and are used for growing common crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat.
o The number of barns varies, but no single area has a huge advantage over the others.

4. Special Crops and Food Businesses:
o None of the areas are designated for special crops like fruits or vegetables by the province.
o There are no major food-related businesses (like food storage or processing plants) in these areas.

Conclusion:

Based on the report, these lands are far from suitable for development. The areas are highly valuable for agriculture, with excellent soil quality and active farming operations. None of the areas stand out as more appropriate for development than others, and given the agricultural importance, other factors like traffic or environmental studies would not change the fact that this land is best used for farming, not development.

Map of Northeast Pickering

Source: https://www.insauga.com/opening-northeast-pickering-for-development-in-conflict-with-future-airport-flight-path/